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Category: Publications

Temblor Articles

Urbanization in Downtown San Diego. Credit: Tony Webster CC-BY-2.0.
Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Past meets present to help future seismic hazard forecasts in San Diego

By Alka Tripathy-Lang, Ph.D. (@DrAlkaTrip)   Urbanization obscures a complex fault zone on which downtown San Diego sits, but decades-old geotechnical studies reveal the faults.   Citation: Alka Tripathy-Lang (2020), …

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

La secuencia sísmica del invierno 2019-2020 en Puerto Rico que ha mantenido a la población en alerta

Alberto M. López, K. Stephen Hughes, and Elizabeth Vanacore Department of Geology, University of Puerto Rico – Mayagüez Puerto Rico Seismic Network, University of Puerto Rico – Mayagüez Citation: López, …

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Puerto Rico’s Winter 2019-2020 Seismic Sequence Leaves the Island On Edge

Alberto M. López, K. Stephen Hughes, and Elizabeth Vanacore Department of Geology, University of Puerto Rico – Mayagüez Puerto Rico Seismic Network, University of Puerto Rico – Mayagüez Citation: López, …

A view of Morgan Hill, the locus of a recent magnitude-3.9 earthquake felt by some northern California residents. Credit: Ross Stein, Temblor.
Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

New year, new California quakes

By Alka Tripathy-Lang, Ph.D. (@DrAlkaTrip)   On Wednesday night, two small earthquakes welcomed California into the next decade.
   Citation: Alka Tripathy-Lang (2020), New year, new California quakes, Temblor, http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.063 …

Temblor's Probabilistic Uniform Seismic Hazard (PUSH) model for Eurasia, showing the strongest shaking expected in your lifetime. Earthquakes from the past 30 days are also plotted. Image was generated December 30, 2019. Credit: Ross Stein, Temblor
Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Triumphs, Conundrums, and Debates in Earthquake Forecasting and Seismic Hazards

By Ross S. Stein, Ph.D., Temblor CEO   Citation: Ross S. Stein (2019), Triumphs, Conundrums, and Debates in Earthquake Forecasting and Seismic Hazards, Temblor, http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.062   At the American Geophysical …

Bogotá, Colombia, the capital and largest city in the country, was shaken on Christmas Eve by a magnitude-6.2 temblor. Credit: Ian Barbour, CC BY-SA 2.0
Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Largest Colombian crustal earthquake in 20 years strikes on Christmas Eve

Evacuations in Bogotá and the suspension of transportation systems followed a magnitude-6.2 earthquake, which struck on or near where the North Andean Block grinds against South American Plate. The mainshock was followed just 15 minutes later by a magnitude-5.7 aftershock. Further large aftershocks remain a possibility

Both traditional and unconventional oil and gas extraction operations create wastewater, which must be disposed of properly. One common disposal option is injecting the wastewater back into the ground, which can lead to increased seismicity. Credit: Ficelloguy, CC BY-SA 3.0
Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Can scientists forecast human-induced earthquakes?

Aiming to make energy production safer, scientists developed a new model for forecasting earthquakes caused by oil and gas operations in the central U.S.

Mount Apo, a reticent stratovolcano near Davao City, the third largest city in the Philippines. Credit: Robert Anton Pimentel Aparente, CC BY-SA 4.0
Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor / Volcano Insights

Four large quakes in two months jolt southern Philippines

By Alka Tripathy-Lang, Ph.D. (@DrAlkaTrip)
   In the past two months, four quakes between magnitude-6.4 to -6.8 ruptured southwest of Mount Apo, a quiet stratovolcano near Davao City, in the …

Seismometer deployment in Nepal
Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Gorkha aftershocks reveal seismic hazard in Nepal

by Jennifer Schmidt, Ph.D. (@DrJenGEO) Researchers used seismic signals from 8,000 earthquakes after the Gorkha quake in 2015 to image the fault structure beneath Nepal. They found a system of …

Map showing Temblor’s globally consistent PUSH (Probabilistic Uniform Seismic Hazard) model, together with earthquakes principally from the EMSC catalog. The region is one in which residents should expect powerful shaking in their lifetimes. The aftershock distribution is roughly perpendicular to the presumed NW-SE oriented thrust fault.
Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Albania earthquake strikes highest-hazard zone in the Balkans, devastating nearby towns

As of today, some 24 people are dead and 650 injured, and many more are unaccounted for in collapsed concrete buildings on the coastal plains surrounding the epicenter. The quake likely struck on a ‘blind thrust fault’ that does not reach the Earth’s surface but had nevertheless been previously identified by geologists.

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Can science tell when a large earthquake will be followed by an even larger one?

Realtime aftershock statistics may be able to identify whether an even larger event is likely to follow, the authors of a new study argue. Additional prospective testing and more strategic public communication will be needed prior to deployment

From the epicenter of the 2014 magnitude 6.0 Napa earthquake (red star), the P-wave (yellow circle) raced ahead of the more damaging S-wave (red circle). The blind zone, for which no warning was possible, is shown by the solid gray circle with a red slash. Small green circles show seismic stations. Credit: video produced by the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS).
Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

California Earthquake Early Warning tested by moderate Bay Area earthquakes

Warnings were issued for the magnitude-4.5 and magnitude-4.7 quakes 5-6 seconds after they ruptured via ShakeAlert, and alerts reached beta testers of the MyShake app about 2 seconds later. While important progress, these intrinsic delays mean that those who experienced strong shaking received no warning. Alert delays may be longer as the number of alert recipients grows.

A sightseeing boat hurled onto a two-story building at Otsuchi, Iwate prefecture, by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. This means that the tsunami barrier, visible at left, was overtopped by at least 10 m (33 ft).
Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Fate and denial: The Fukushima reactor 3, and the L’Aquila earthquake 7

The recent acquittal of the TEPCO executives in the Fukushima power plant tragedy hearkens back to the trial of the Italian seismologists who were charged with negligence after the L’Aquila, Italy, earthquakes. Both events raise the question: How much do you prepare for the most dreadful disasters, which result from truly large or rare paroxysms of the Earth?

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Forecasting aftershocks: Back to square one after a Deep Learning anticlimax

A 2018 study published in Nature by Phoebe DeVries and her colleagues at Harvard and Google claimed that Deep Learning was able to predict the locations of aftershocks with accuracies far greater than Coulomb stress transfer could achieve

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Over 66 million people participate in international ShakeOut; prompts evaluation of personal preparedness

Tiegan Hobbs, Ph.D., Postdoctoral Seismic Risk Scientist, Temblor @THobbsGeo Across the planet, people dropped under their tables at 10:17am on 10/17 to practice what to do in the event of …

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Holding a mirror to the Loma Prieta earthquake 30 years later

17 Oct 2019 marks the 30th anniversary of the Loma Prieta earthquake, the Bay Area “wake-up call” that revealed our weaknesses and catalyzed our preparation. But the quake has been …

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Shaking in California continues: Magnitude 4.7 strikes the San Andreas Fault south of Hollister

Another earthquake with magnitude greater than 4 has struck California in less than a day. It occurred on a portion of the San Andreas Fault which is relatively quiet, but …

USGS Did You Feel It? responses to the 14 October 2019 Pleasant Hill shock.
Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Magnitude 4.5 Pleasant Hill earthquake felt throughout the S.F. Bay area and into the Central Valley

Last night, nearly everyone in the greater Bay area was awakened at 10:30 pm by a Magnitude 4.5 shock near the town of Pleasant Hill, north of Walnut Creek

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Earthquake size is not foretold in the first second of rupture, study finds, shortening warning times

A new comprehensive study of almost 100,000 earthquakes in Japan suggest that large or small, quakes look alike in the first 0.2 seconds

Location of the Main Marmara Fault and major earthquakes during the instrumental earthquake period in the years between 1900 and 2019. Modified from the active fault map of General Directorate of Mineral Research, Turkey.
Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Strong earthquake strikes near the Marmara Fault, damaging 77 buildings and frightening Istanbul residents

One hospital, four schools, and nine administrative buildings are severely damaged. Some 29 schools of various degrees of damage were forced to close, at least temporarily.

Our Coulomb stress calculation is based on the’ focal mechanism’ (geometry and orientation) of the M 5.7 and the assumption that the Marmara Fault is vertically inclined and right-lateral (whichever side you are on, the other moves to the right). The 1999 rupture is from Parsons et al. (2000) and Hubert-Ferrari et al. (2000); the 1912 rupture is from Altunel et al. (2004).
Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Could the 26 Sept 2019 Marmara Sea earthquake trigger a much larger event closer to Istanbul?

Based on the M 5.7 aftershocks thus far, there is a 3% chance that it could trigger a magnitude-6.5 or larger shock in the next year. The M 5.7 also brought a portion of the Marmara Fault significantly closer to failure.

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Secrets of a Los Angeles blind thrust fault reveal increased seismic risk

A fault lying just a few kilometers below Los Angeles is active, according to new research. The work suggests previous examinations of so-called blind-thrust faults might need to be revisited …

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Indonesian “Black Swan” quake: a painful reminder of last year’s M 7.5 Palu shock

Just two days shy of the one-year anniversary of the deadly earthquake and tsunami in Palu, Indonesia, a major earthquake ruptured beneath the nearby island of Maluku on the morning of Thursday, September 26. Local agencies are reporting 20 dead and 2,000 displaced in the wake of this M 6.5 earthquake.

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Ridgecrest earthquake shut down cross-fault aftershocks

The Magnitude 7.1 earthquake abruptly halted aftershocks on the M 6.4 cross fault. It also produced a far-flung aftershock sequence that touched the San Andreas, but refused to cross the Garlock Fault.

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

August 1, 2019, magnitude-6.8 Chile earthquake reveals stress is building on the megathrust

Tiegan Hobbs, Ph.D., Postdoctoral Seismic Risk Scientist, Temblor (@THobbsGeo) Sandwiched in the neighborhood of the 1960 M=9.5, 2010 M=8.8, 2015 M=8.3 and 1985 M=7.8 earthquakes, a M=6.8 earthquake went virtually unreported …

Only about 10 buildings in San Francisco have accelerometers. The lack of uniform implementation highlights the need for a new and more efficient system. The new technology, called Discrete Diode Position Sensors, is being pilot tested on a building on the campus of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory this summer. Credit: Public domain
Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Lasers speed up seismic damage assessments

Engineers may have found a way to measure displacement between floors of multistory buildings cheaply, accurately and in real-time, paving the way for quick analysis of the stability of critical infrastructure (e.g. hospitals, airports, water treatment plants) in the event of an earthquake.

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

The Ridgecrest earthquakes: Torn ground, nested foreshocks, Garlock shocks, and Temblor’s forecast

A new image of the ground deformation, a rich and enigmatic foreshock sequence, aftershock trends we can explain, and others that are more elusive. This is also the time see how Temblor app’s hazard forecast for Ridgecrest fared.

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

M 7.1 SoCal earthquake triggers aftershocks up to 100 mi away: What’s next?

The 50-km-long rupture has triggered widely dispersed aftershocks. However, almost none of these struck on the faults that the M 7.1 brought closer to failure: The major Garlock Fault; or the Blackwater, Panamint Valley, or Sierra Nevada Faults.

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Magnitude 7.1 earthquake rips northwest from the M6.4 just 34 hours later

Ross S. Stein, Ph.D., Tiegan Hobbs, Ph.D., Chris Rollins, Ph.D., Geoffrey Ely, Ph.D., Volkan Sevilgen, M.Sc., and Shinji Toda, Ph.D.   The M 6.4 earthquake loaded the site where the …

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Earthquake Just North of Cascadia is Felt Along Canada’s West Coast

While it wasn’t the ‘Big One’, activity near the Revere-Dellwood Fault at the northern end of the Cascadia Subduction Zone is a reminder to Canadians to be prepared for shaking. 

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Earthquake early warning system challenged by the largest SoCal shock in 20 years

Tiegan Hobbs, Ph.D., Postdoctoral Seismic Risk Scientist, Temblor (@THobbsGeo) Chris Rollins, Ph.D., Postdoctoral Researcher, Michigan State University   Citation: Hobbs, T.E. and Rollins, C., (2019), Earthquake early warning system challenged …

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Southern California M 6.4 earthquake stressed by two large historic ruptures

The site of the 4th of July shock was stressed by the great 1872 Owens Valley quake and the 1992 Landers quake. Their overlapping stress lobes may have raised the stakes for this region.

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Earthquake rumbles the gates of Rome

On June 23, a Mw=3.6 earthquake struck Colonna, Italy, southeast of Rome. Despite initial fears that it was yet another large quake near the central Apennines, it struck instead nearby the Alban Hills volcanic complex and the source of the famed Tivoli marble.

The OSU Marine Science building under construction, April 2019. It’s on a sandbar at sea level in Newport, Ore., and can be overtopped by the largest of the modeled tsunamis, as well as battered by the NOAA ships docked just to the left out of the frame. It’s not often you can take the “after” picture ahead of time, but this is what it may look like after being destroyed by the next tsunami. Credit: Chris Goldfinger.
Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Oregon legislature turns its back on tsunamis

While Japan is moving entire towns out of the tsunami zone in the wake of the 2011 Tohoku disaster, Oregon is doing the opposite, trading public safety for developer profits.

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

The first Marsquake is recorded

Mars InSight Lander: Marsquakes, Breakthroughs, and Breakdowns

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Damaging aftershock hits Japan after 55 years

Could the 2019 M=6.4 Yamagata-Oki, Japan, earthquake be an aftershock of an M=7.5 event that struck in 1964

Earthquake ruptures sputter along for about 10 seconds, after which the big ones accelerate, marking them for future greatness, according to Melgar and Hayes. The panel at left is a horizontally stretched zoom on the dashed box on the left.
Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Can the size of a large earthquake be foretold just 10 seconds after it starts?

Previous research suggests that not until halfway through the rupture—90 seconds for an M=9 shock—can one predict its magnitude, but new findings could bring this down to 10-15 sec, which would greatly extend and enhance Earthquake Early Warnings.

Earthquake Insights / Publications

Identificata la faglia responsabile del terremoto di Messina del 1908

Nel 1908 un terremoto di magnitudo 7.1 colpì la città di Messina. Il terremoto e successivo tsunami devastarono l’abitato, uccidendo più di 75.000 persone.

Earthquake Insights / Earthquake Map / Publications / Temblor

Fault responsible for the 1908 Messina earthquake identified

This study has shown that it is better to try and link historical earthquakes to studied and mapped active faults, and therefore to use this information when calculating the seismic hazard posed to a region.

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Seismic swarm in progress in Southern California

The mysterious ‘Fontana Trend’ lit up in shallow and widely felt shocks during the past week, putting residents on edge. The swarm lies near the junction of the major Sierra Madre and San Jacinto Faults.

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica: A unique opportunity to drill and instrument the seismogenic zone of large megathrust earthquakes

We welcome inquiries from scientists and institutions for such an ambitious yet discounted project. Resources from ICDP, national funding agencies, and potentially other foundations could be leveraged to take advantage of this unique tectonic and temporal opportunity.

30 May 2019 M=6.6 El Salvador Quake Occurred in A Region of Very High Risk
Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Terremoto en El Salvador: Un Evento Moderado en un Área de Riesgo Sísmico Extremo

Debido a su ubicación costa afuera y una profundidad moderada, el temblor del jueves provocó pocos daños. Pero varios indicios sugieren que la suerte de El Salvador no durará por mucho más. Este evento también resalta el creciente número de terremotos extensionales grandes: una tendencia global con implicaciones de peligro importantes.

30 May 2019 M=6.6 El Salvador Quake Occurred in A Region of Very High Risk
Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

El Salvador Earthquake: A Moderate Event in An Area of Extreme Seismic Risk

Because of its offshore location and moderate depth, Thursday’s shock did little damage. But many indications suggest that El Salvador will not stay so lucky for long. This event also highlights the increasing number of large extensional earthquakes: a global trend with important hazard implications.

Road damage in the Cajamarca Region from Twitter (@Crisanris).
Earthquake Insights / Publications

Se siente intense terremoto en Perú a lo largo de Sudamérica

Un fuerte terremoto de Mw 8.0 sacudió a Perú a las 2:41 am hora local este domingo 26 de mayo de 2019, desde un epicentro dentro de la Reserva Nacional de Pacaya-Samiria en la selva tropical del Amazonas.

Road damage in the Cajamarca Region from Twitter (@Crisanris).
Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Deep earthquake in Peru is felt along the length of South America: More to follow?

A magnitude-8.0 quake shook deep below the Amazon Rainforest in Peru, causing extensive liquefaction and shaking from Colombia to Chile.

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Large Earthquake in Papua New Guinea re-ruptures major fault in just 19 years: More to follow?

A magnitude-7.5 quake broke the same fault that produced a magnitude-8.0 quake in 2000, an extraordinarily short recurrence time that also broke all our rules

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Repeating earthquakes discovered in Costa Rica

An open invitation for researchers to use these remarkable Costa Rica quakes as a collaboration laboratory

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Two damaging tremors highlight the Philippines’ coast-to-coast earthquake problem

Two deadly and damaging quakes late last month were probably unrelated to each other.

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Ten times more earthquakes now detected in Southern California

The authors claim they found dynamic triggering of tiny aftershocks up to 275 km (150 mi)
from an M=7.2 mainshock in 2010, but they have not proved their case.

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

The 5 worst (and 5 best) places to live in the S.F. Bay Area if the great 1906 earthquake recurred today

While exact repeats of earthquakes are rare, if the 1906 quake did strike again, what will be our excuse for being so unprepared?

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Scientific fraud announced in two studies of the 2016 M=7.0 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake

In one case, the fault rupture and its associated seismicity had been shifted toward a volcano in support of the author’s hypothesis; in the other, seismograms from temporary near-fault stations had been manufactured. In both cases, evaluation committees and universities called for retractions.

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

The riddle of the 19 September 2017 Mexican earthquake

The magnitude 7.1 earthquake, which struck Mexico City on 19 September 2017, caused devastation in the city and its surroundings. 369 people died, 57 buildings collapsed, and a much larger number was seriously damaged.

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Three independent models converge on the high earthquake potential of Los Angeles

A new model joins two others in confirming the hazard posed by the tectonic forces that are squeezing and shearing greater LA.

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Seismic warning to India: A shock strikes just north of Delhi

India is one of the countries with the most earthquake-related deaths. Just in the past century, over 100.000 people have died due to earthquakes in the country (Bilham, 2009)

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Mexico-Guatemala earthquake, felt by millions, likely triggered by the 2017 megaquake

The megathrust fault lacks large subduction zone earthquakes in this region. What do these extensional earthquakes tell us?

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Magnitude 5.7 earthquake strikes in a long-lived gap in great earthquakes

The earthquake is surrounded by recent great quakes; whether one could strike here is uncertain

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Strong shaking from central coastal Chile earthquake: What does it reveal about the next megathrust shock?

The Coquimbo region has an unusual, increasing seismicity that may be preparing the area for a very large earthquake – Prof. Raul Madariaga

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Seismic swarm hits Hayward Fault: What does it portend?

One may think that these quakes are small, so why do they matter? Why should I care?

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

What if the Northridge earthquake had struck today, on its 25th anniversary, during the U.S. government shutdown?

The partial shutdown could make things worse

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Quake Connectivity: 3 January 2019 M=5.1 Japan shock was promoted by the April 2016 M=7.0 Kumamoto earthquake

Japanese authorities declared the Jan 3 shock to be an independent event; we argue that it was a product of the 2016 quake, which profoundly changed the hazard.

Earthquake Insights / Earthquake Map / Publications / Temblor

Mt. Etna eruption likely reactivated Fiandaca Fault

In Pennisi, the statue of Saint Emidio, protector from earthquakes, collapsed.

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Sunda Strait tsunami launched by sudden collapse of Krakatau volcano into the sea

Tsunami, Eruption, and earthquake risk is not over

Earthquake Insights / Earthquake Map / Publications / Temblor

Did Tuesday’s M=7.9 Kodiak earthquake nudge the Alaskan Megathrust closer to failure?

The Alaskan Megathrust was responsible for the M=9.2 Good Friday earthquake in 1964.

kos-greece-earthquake
Earthquake Insights / Earthquake Map / Publications / Temblor

Which fault ruptured in the M=6.6 Kos-Bodrum earthquake?

While the fault that ruptured in last week’s Kos-Bodrum earthquake is still up for debate, we now know that the M=7.7 earthquake in the Commander Islands ruptured the Bering Fault Zone

new-zealand-earthquake-fault-map-hope-fault
Earthquake Insights / Earthquake Map / Publications / Temblor

14 November 2016 Mw=7.8 New Zealand earthquake shows an uncanny resemblance to the 2015 Nepal shock

At 12:02 a.m. local time, a Mw=7.8 (per USGS), Mw=7.5 (per GNS Science, NZ) earthquake struck New Zealand’s South Island, and caused tsunami warnings to be issued for all of New Zealand’s east coast.

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

How a M=6 earthquake triggered a deadly M=7 in Japan

It’s been over four months since we wrote about the powerful Kumamoto quake sequence: The 15 April 2016 Mw=6.2 (Mjma 6.5) Kumamoto, Japan, shock, which was succeeded 28 hours later by the very damaging Mw=7.0 (Mjma 7.3) shock on the same fault system. We can now give you a preview of crucial new discoveries by Japanese and other researchers.

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

Italy earthquake leaves seismic gaps that were last filled by three large earthquakes in 1703

Could this happen again now? As with precursory swarms, progressive earthquake sequences are uncommon.

Earthquake Insights / Publications / Temblor

The Tail that Wagged the Dog: M=7.0 Kumamoto, Japan shock promoted by M=6.1 quake that struck 28 hr beforehand

Was the M=6.1 a foreshock of the M=7.0, or was the M=7.0 an aftershock of the M=6.1?

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