Last year’s probability comes from the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) model of Bird et al. (2015). So, the Marmara M 5.7 has increased next year’s probability of large shocks by factors of 3-4 over last year’s.

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Last year's probability comes from the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) model of Bird et al. (2015). So, the Marmara M 5.7 has increased next year's probability of large shocks by factors of 3-4 over last year's.

Last year’s probability comes from the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) model of Bird et al. (2015). So, the Marmara M 5.7 has increased next year’s probability of large shocks by factors of 3-4 over last year’s.

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