Our Coulomb stress calculation is based on the’ focal mechanism’ (geometry and orientation) of the M 5.7 and the assumption that the Marmara Fault is vertically inclined and right-lateral (whichever side you are on, the other moves to the right). The 1999 rupture is from Parsons et al. (2000) and Hubert-Ferrari et al. (2000); the 1912 rupture is from Altunel et al. (2004).