black and white map overlaid by red and yellow squares.

Faults brought closer to failure by the magnitude-6.9 rupture turn red (left panel). Faults are represented by the focal mechanisms (“beachballs”) of past magnitude-3.9 or larger earthquakes from the Taiwan BATS catalog (Institute of Earth Sciences, 1996). These stress changes, along with the background seismicity from 1996-2020, are used to forecast the number and distribution of magnitude-5 or larger earthquakes in the 30-day period beginning on Sept. 20, 2022 (right panel). We expect aftershocks to be concentrated along the coastal region adjacent to and along the Longitudinal Valley Fault system.

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