map of central Mexico

Here we use Temblor’s Realtime Risk (Toda and Stein, 2020) model to forecast earthquakes greater than or equal to magnitude-5.0 for the 30 days beginning Sept. 20, 2022. For this calculation, we used the stress transfer from all magnitude-7.0 and greater shocks since 2012, the background seismicity, and earthquake focal mechanisms. We use the Servicio Sismológico Nacional (UNAM) seismic catalog for earthquakes greater than or equal to magnitude-4.0 for the timespan ranging from 2000 to 2012, and Global CMT focal mechanisms.

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