megathrust-aftershock-core-corona

chart with red and blue lines

In our model of seismicity evolution, immediately after the mainshocks, the aftershock rate is high in the core (blue), but it drops to a level below the pre-mainshock seismicity rate within several years. In contrast, the corona (red) activates immediately, slowly decaying to (but not below) the pre-mainshock rate over 30-60 years.

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