Aleutian 12 month earthquake forecast

 

In the wake of the recent M7.8 and M7.6 earthquakes in Alaska, Temblor issued an earthquake forecast for the next 12 months, based on the background quake rate and the stress imparted by the M7.6 event.

The M7.6 is likely a strike-slip tear in the subducting slab. This tear is evident from the right-lateral offset in the seismicity trend.

The M7.6 broke two false “rules” of seismic hazard assessment: That once a ‘seismic gap’ is filled, the hazard drops; and that the largest aftershock is at least one M unit smaller than the mainshock.