The GEAR model (color bands above) suggests that a M=5.4 shock would be expected in a typical lifetime. Put another way, a shock of that magnitude would have a 60% chance of occurring in an 85-year lifetime, or a 1% chance of striking per year. Is this correct, or are such shocks more common?

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The GEAR model (color bands above) suggests that a M=5.4 shock would be expected in a typical lifetime. Put another way, a shock of that magnitude would have a 60% chance of occurring in an 85-year lifetime, or a 1% chance of striking per year. Is this correct, or are such shocks more common?

The GEAR model (color bands above) suggests that a M=5.4 shock would be expected in a typical lifetime. Put another way, a shock of that magnitude would have a 60% chance of occurring in an 85-year lifetime, or a 1% chance of striking per year. Is this correct, or are such shocks more common?

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