Figure 4. Probabilistic forecast for 12-month periods. (a) This forecast considers the decaying impact of the stress transferred by the 2010 magnitude-7.0 and the 2021 magnitude-7.2 earthquakes on surrounding faults, following the approach of Toda and Stein (2020). Except for the 40 kilometers centered on the Aug. 14, 2021 rupture, a 220-kilometer-long section of the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden Fault System has a higher likelihood of hosting magnitude-5.0 or bigger quakes than during an average 12-month period, as shown in (b). Credit: Temblor Inc.